Market Insights: Energy & Certificate Prices

Energy Prices

After reaching relative lows in January 2024, electricity prices have increased steadily in Feb, Mar and Apr, followed by a dramatic increase in May. The May increase was caused by the NSW market entering an 'Administered Price Period' on 8th May 2024, which occurs when spot energy prices remain too high for too long and the market operator steps in to control pricing. This spike in spot prices flows across borders and into wholesale futures prices as shown in the Australian Power Index. 

The increase in energy prices increases the dollar savings that will result from implementing solar and battery projects. If we take a 2 MW solar project in Victoria as an example, the payback period goes from 4.3 years to 3.8 years as wholesale energy prices move from $60/MW to $80/MW (network and environmental charges remaining static). 

 

Certificate Prices

For medium-large solar and battery projects, the main incentives available are the Large Generation Certificate (LGC) and the Victorian Energy Efficiency Certificate (VEEC). Certificate prices are provided by our partners Ecovantage. 

LGCs can be generated on a regular basis (typically annually) upon proof of electricity generation, with 1 MWh of energy produced equalling 1 LGC. Projects larger than 100 kW can generate LGCs anywhere in Australia. LGC prices have remained relatively stable in 2024, with slight increases observed for 2025 and 2026 LGCs and robust pricing out to 2028. 

 

VEECs can be generated for projects in Victoria that have not received LGCs or STCs (mostly projects >100 kW) and a project can 'deem' 10 years' of VEECs upon proof of performance with measurement and verification of savings. This requires 12 months of energy production so VEECs are typically generated a year or so after the project is energised. VEEC prices have increased significantly in 2024, approaching the tax-effective penalty price in the last few weeks.

 

The increase in VEEC prices increases the value of certificates that can be deemed when savings for a project are measured and verified. With current VEEC prices almost half the typical capital cost of a large solar project can be deemed. If we take a 2 MW solar project in Victoria as an example, the payback period goes from 3.8 years to 2.6 years as VEEC prices increase from $80 to $115 per certificate. However, projects must be fully implemented by 31 Jan 2025 to capitalise on these incentives, with a 20% reduction in VEECs for projects implemented after this date.  

The combination of high energy costs and high certificate prices across Australia make implementing solar immensely attractive in most cases and a no-brainer in Victoria. If you're yet to implement solar, or are considering adding more solar or a battery, now is the time to start.

To understand the costs and benefits of solar and batteries at your site, start an assessment now. Our team of solar engineers will work with you to find the optimal solution for your decarbonisation and cost-reduction needs.